Basketball teams whose starting lineup includes a small guard cannot win championships.

That sentence was written just after tip off of Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals, though I have yet to tune in. The Spurs are a great organization and Wembanyama may be my new LeBron, but for this series, in this year, I want the Knicks to win. Nonetheless, the John Stockton theory predicts they will not.

In the NBA Finals, any team’s weakness is hunted and exploited. The easiest weakness to exploit is a poor defender. You can be a poor defender by not caring, like James Harden, but you can also be a poor defender by being small, even if you care. A player who contests shots, disrupts passing lanes, and plays with their arms up is still beatable if they are small. It is harder for them to move laterally, it is harder for their hands to get in the way, and their lower weight makes them easier to push around.

“Small” means wingspan: long arms on a short player are more impactful than short arms on a tall player. Focusing on wingspan explains why guards such as Steph Curry and Kyrie Irving could win championships. Though on the smaller side, their arm length made them pesky defenders, pesky enough that the opposing team cannot rely on hunting them on offense.

It is for this reason that I predict, sadly, that the Knicks will lose the Finals, in 6 or 7. I love Brunson. He is scrappy, an incredible clutch player, and by all accounts a good guy. Unfortunately, he is small. Though he is muscled and a savant at drawing charges, analysis requires separating the heart from the mind as much as possible. He has to stay on the floor because he is the Knick’s best player, but that also means he will be a defensive liability at all times. A team can get away with putting a defensive liability on the floor for seven months of the year, just not in June.

On the other hand, De’aron Fox is not much taller or longer. He weighs less. So perhaps the theory predicts the Spurs will win. Theory in the social sciences always requires more data!